Warren Buffett’s progress report on succession planning

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Berkshire Hathaway’s highlights on the company’s 2011 progress is headed by the item on succession planning. In his letter dated 25 February 2012 for FY2011, Warren Buffett said: “The primary job of a Board of Directors is to see that the right people are running the business and to be sure that the next generation of leaders is identified and ready to take over tomorrow. I have been on 19 corporate boards, and Berkshire’s directors are at the top of the list in the time and diligence they have devoted to succession planning. What’s more, their efforts have paid off.”

Sharing his thoughts on Todd Combs and Ted Weschler,  Warren Buffett said: “As 2011 started, Todd Combs joined us as an investment manager, and shortly after yearend Ted Weschler came aboard. Both of these men have outstanding investment skills and a deep commitment to Berkshire. Each will be handling a few billion dollars in 2012, but they have the brains, judgment and character to manage our entire portfolio when Charlie and I are no longer running Berkshire.”

When it comes to the question of CEO succession, Warren Buffett said, without mentioning names, that Berkshire Hathaway has “two superb back-up candidates”. The highlight says: “Your Board is equally enthusiastic about my successor as CEO,  an individual to whom they have had a great deal of exposure and whose managerial and human qualities they admire. (We have two superb back-up candidates as well.) When a transfer of responsibility is required, it will be seamless, and Berkshire’s prospects will remain bright.”

Warren Buffett ends the succession planning report on this note: “Do not, however, infer from this discussion that Charlie and I are going anywhere; we continue to be in excellent health, and we love what we do.”

 

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Warren Buffett raises stake in Tesco

The Sun said in a report titled “Warren Buffett tucks in with £520m of Tesco’s shares” that Warren Buffett’s investment company had raised  its shareholding in the stores giant from  3.21 per cent to 5.08 per cent — snapping up 150 million shares over 24  hours. The deal was estimated to be worth up to £520 million.

Billions from Tesco’s market value were reportedly wiped out last week after  Tesco chief exec Phil  Clarke revealed plans to  spend a fortune “re-setting” the UK business after a bleak Christmas.

Some information on the Tesco group culled by Buffettpedia from Tesco’s  Annual Report And Financial Statements 2011:

Tesco’s principal activity, business review and future developments: The principal activity of the Group is retailing and associated activities in the UK, China, the Czech Republic, Hungary, the Republic of Ireland, India, Japan, Malaysia, Poland, Slovakia, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey and the US. The Group also provides retail banking and insurance services through its subsidiary, Tesco Bank.

Its returns on capital employed (ROCE)

2008: 12.9%;

 2009: 12.8%;

2010: 12.1%;

2011: 12.9%

Total shareholder return

2008: 22.8%;

 2009: 8.0%;

2010: 9.5%;

 2011: 6.7%

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Remember the four criteria of selecting marketable equity securities

Buffettpedia says Happy New Year to one and all.

For investment novices contemplating investments in the new year, it will be useful to look at four Warren Buffett criteria in picking marketable securities. Buffettpedia mentioned them in a post last year:  Picking marketable securities: four criteria

To recapitulate, Warren Buffett said in  Year 1997 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders (March 14, 1978): “We select our marketable equity securities in much the same way we would evaluate a business for acquisition in its entirety.
We want the business to be (1) one that we can understand, (2)
with favorable long-term prospects, (3) operated by honest and
competent people, and (4) available at a very attractive price.
We ordinarily make no attempt to buy equities for anticipated
favorable stock price behavior in the short term.  In fact, if
their business experience continues to satisfy us, we welcome
lower market prices of stocks we own as an opportunity to acquire even more of a good thing at a better price.”

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Widening the moat

In February 2008, Warren Buffett said in his FY2007 letter to Berkshire shareholders: “A truly great business must have an enduring ‘moat’ that protects excellent returns on invested capital.”

Mr Buffett’s reasoning is that “the dynamics of capitalism guarantee that competitors will repeatedly assault any business ‘castle’ that is earning high returns” and that “a formidable barrier such as a company’s being the low-cost producer (GEICO, Costco) or possessing a powerful world-wide brand (Coca-Cola, Gillette, American Express) is essential for sustained success”.

If one follows closely Mr Buffett’s thoughts on economic moats, he also believes in widening existing moats.

In February 28, 2006, Mr Buffett said in his FY2005 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders: “Every day, in countless ways, the competitive position of each of our businesses grows either weaker or stronger. If we are delighting customers, eliminating unnecessary costs and improving our products and services, we gain strength. But if we treat customers with indifference or tolerate bloat, our businesses will wither. On a daily basis, the effects of our actions are imperceptible; cumulatively, though, their consequences are enormous. When our long-term competitive position improves as a result of these almost unnoticeable actions, we describe the phenomenon as ‘widening the moat’.  And doing that is essential if we are to have the kind of business we want a decade or two from now. “

Companies will, of course,  hope to earn more money in the short-term. In the same FY2005 letter, Mr Buffett said: “But when short-term and long-term conflict, widening the moat must take precedence. If a management makes bad decisions in order to hit short-term earnings targets, and consequently gets behind the eight-ball in terms of costs, customer satisfaction or brand strength, no amount of subsequent brilliance will overcome the damage that has been inflicted. Take a look at the dilemmas of managers in the auto and airline industries today as they struggle with the huge problems handed them by their predecessors. Charlie is fond of quoting Ben Franklin’s ‘An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.’ But sometimes no amount of cure will overcome the mistakes of the past.”

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Understanding the balance sheet (Part 3)

In Understanding the balance sheet Parts 1 and 2, Buffettpedia told starters that:

(a) Assets = Liabilities + Equity

(b) Alternatively:  Assets – Liabilities = Equity

Then we went on to say assets are what a company owns, liabilities are what it owes and equity comes from shareholders.

After that we broke down assets into current assets and non-current assets; and liabilities into currrent liabilities and non-current liabilities.

Buffettpedia further gave the following examples:

Examples of current assets: (a) cash and equivalents and short-term investments (b) accounts receivable (c) inventories.

Examples of non-current assets: (a) property, plant and equipment (b) investments (c) intangible assets.

Examples of current liabilities: (a) accounts payable (b) short-term borrowings.

Examples of non-current liabilities: long-term debt, such as bonds and bank loans.

Examples of equity: (a) money raised from the issue of new shares (b) retained earnings

Understanding the balance sheet (Part 3) in today’s post  examines the components of the abovementioned examples to understand what they are:

(a) Cash and equivalents and short-term investments: Cash itself needs no explanation. The cash equivalents refer to money market funds or anyting that can be easily liquated and turned into cash. Examples of short-term investments are bonds that have less than a year to maturity.

(b) Accounts receivable: This is money owed to the company resulting from a sale and which the firm is expecting to receive payment soon. Let’s illustrate. When a company makes a sale and ships the goods ordered, it records the amount of sale as revenue in its profit and loss statement (more about profit and loss statement in subsequent postings) . Let’s say the order is $2 million. The recorded revenue is $2 million. But the sale does not mean that the company now has $2 million in cash in its hands.  The company may allow the customer to pay the money within 60 days. So until the bill is collected, the amount of $2 million remains an accounts receivable. There is a potential red flag here: if the accounts receivable is growing much faster than the firm’s sales, it may mean the company is more easy going on credit terms for customers in order to boost its revenue. The risk of payment default is higher in such a case.

(c) Inventories: raw materials, partiall finished products and finished products.

(d) Property, plant and equipment: land,buildings, factories, furniture, equipment and the like. These are long-term assets that a firm needs to run a business.

(e) Intangible assets: normally refers to goodwill. How does this come about? Let’s say firm ABC is acquiring full control of XYZ. The tangible value of XYZ is say $80m. But because XYZ is well-known as a brand, ABC is prepared to pay above the tangile value. Let’s say ABC pays $130m to acquire XYZ. The difference between $130m and $80m is the intangible assets – known as goodwill in this case – of $50m.

(f) Accounts payable: This is the reverse of accounts receivable. Accounts payable are bills the firm owes others and are expected to be paid up within a year. Let’s say the firm buys $20,000 worth of raw materials and the supplier gives the firm a credit period of 60 days to pay up. This bill of $20,000 will be recorded as accounts payable.

(g) Short-term borrowings: A firm may have short-term needs and borrow money with repayment expected to be made within a year. The borrowing could be in the form of a bank overdraft. Short-term borrowings could be a portion of a long-term debt that is due for repayment within a year.

(h) Long-term debts: this is money the firm owes and where repayment is expected after at least one year. The debt can be in the form of bonds issued by the company or it can be long-term borrowing from banks.

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Understanding the balance sheet (Part 2)

We say in Part (1) of Understanding the balance sheet that:

Assets = Liabilities + Equity

Let’s put in some numbers to understand the equation better.

Assume a firm has assets of $200m, liabilities of $40m and equity of $160m.

Thus $200m (assets) = $40m (liabilities) + $160m (equity).

Remember assets are what the firm owns, liabilities are what it owes and equity is what the shareholders put in.

If the firm decides to issue $20m in bonds, its liabilities will go up by $20m, bringing total liabilities to $60m. This in turn raises the assets of the firm by $20m, bringing total assets to $220m.

The  equation thus becomes: $220m (assets) = $60m (liabilities) + $160m (equity).

Assuming the firm decides to issue new shares to raise $30m. Equity thus becomes $190m and assets become $250m.

The equation now reads: $250m (assets) = $60m  (liabilities) + $190m.

Got it?

In Understanding the balance sheet (Part 1), we aslo say assets comprise  current assets and non-current assets and that liabilities consist of current liabilities and non-current liabilities. To recapitulate, current assets are those likely to be used up or converted into cash within one year and current liabilities are money the firm expects to pay out within a year.

Let’s now look at examples of the assets and liabilities.

Examples of current assets: (a) cash and equivalents and short-term investments (b) accounts receivable (c) inventories.

Examples of non-current assets: (a) property, plant and equipment (b) investments (c) intangible assets.

Examples of current liabilities: (a) accounts payable (b) short-term borrowings.

Examples of non-current liabilities: long-term debt, such as bonds and bank loans.

Examples of equity: (a) money raised from the issue of new shares (b) retained earnings.

In the next post, Buffettpedia will look at what all those terms in the examples mean.

 

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Understanding the balance sheet (Part 1)

For starters, to be able to identify solid companies, an investor needs, among other things,  to have  knowledge of three financial statements: the balance sheet, the income statement and the statement of cash flows. This post will start with the balance sheet, taking a look at its main broad components. The next post will then look at the sub-items of the components and zero in on how to analyse the balance sheet.

What is a balance sheet? This financial statement, which is like a credit report,  has three segments: a company’s assets, its liabilities  and its shareholders’ equity at a specific point in time. Notice that the balance sheet is a snapshot of these segments at a specific point of time (it can be at the end of a financial year or the end of a financial quarter). That’s why a balance sheet is sometimes referred to as a statement of financial position. The three  balance sheet segments tell us what the company owns  (assets) and owes (liabilities) and the amount invested by its  shareholders (equity).

This is the balancing formula:

Assets =  Liabilities + Shareholders’ Equity

Assets consist of current assets (those that are likely to be used up or converted into cash within one year or one business cycle) and non-current assets (those that are not likely to be used up or converted into cash within one year or one business cycle).

Likewise, liabilities comprise current liabilities (money that the firm owes and expects to pay out within one year) and non-current liabilities (money the firm owes but which is not due for payment within a year).

As said earlier, a balance sheet must balance, hence:

Assets =  Liabilities + Shareholders’ Equity

Alternatively, the formula can be:

Assets – Liabilities = Shareholders’ Equity

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Don’t look at the ticker

I like this par that I read in “How Buffett Does It” by James Pardoe: “Warren Buffett, the classic value investor, simply does not care what happens to price deviations in the short run. If one owns shares in great businesses, then the short term doesn’t matter, and the long term will take care of itself. The only exception to this rule is if prices drop significantly, offering Buffett a chance to buy more shares at the depressed levels. When stocks go on sale, Buffett is interested.”

James Pardoe went on to advise: “Instead of focusing on the price movements of his stock, an investor’s time would be better served by monitoring the performance of the business: its management, earnings,  cash flow, future prospects, and so on.”

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Book value as proxy for intrinsic value

In his annual letter (February 26, 2011) to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders for Year 2010, chairman Warren Buffett shared  his and Charlie Munger’s  thoughts on intrinsic value as a measurement of performance:

“Charlie and I believe that those entrusted with handling the funds of others should establish performance goals at the onset of their stewardship. Lacking such standards, managements are tempted to shoot the arrow of performance and then paint the bull’s-eye around wherever it lands.

“In Berkshire’s case, we long ago told you that our job is to increase per-share intrinsic value at a rate greater than the increase (including dividends) of the S&P 500. In some years we succeed; in others we fail. But, if we are unable over time to reach that goal, we have done nothing for our investors, who by themselves could have realized an equal or better result by owning an index fund.

“The challenge, of course, is the calculation of intrinsic value. Present that task to Charlie and me separately, and you will get two different answers. Precision just isn’t possible.

“To eliminate subjectivity, we therefore use an understated proxy for intrinsic-value  - book value - when measuring our performance. To be sure, some of our businesses are worth far more than their carrying value on our books…But since that premium seldom swings wildly from year to year, book value can serve as a reasonable device for tracking how we are doing.”

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Buying a stock: do your homework

“One person’s hot growth stock is another’s disaster waiting to happen,” said Pat Dorsey, author of “The Five Rules For Successful Stock Investing: Morningstar’s Guide to Building Wealth and Winning in the Market”.

“For one thing, you’re putting your money at risk, so you should know what you’re buying,” Pat Dorsey said. His advice? “…you can’t just take some one’s word that a company is an attractive investment.”

In other words, you must “Do Your Homework”. This is Pat Dorsey’s first recommended rule.  This means, according to Pat Dorsey, “sitting down and reading the annual report cover to cover, checking out industry competitors and going through past financial statements.”

Pat Dorsey’s other recommended rules are: find economic moats, have a margin of safety, hold for the long haul, and know when to sell.

Buffettpedia feels that when it comes to buying securities, one should also take a leaf out of Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett’s annual letter (March 14, 1978) to shareholders for Year 1997:

“We select our marketable equity securities in much the same
way we would evaluate a business for acquisition in its entirety.
We want the business to be (1) one that we can understand, (2)
with favorable long-term prospects, (3) operated by honest and
competent people, and (4) available at a very attractive price.
We ordinarily make no attempt to buy equities for anticipated
favorable stock price behavior in the short term.  In fact, if
their business experience continues to satisfy us, we welcome
lower market prices of stocks we own as an opportunity to acquire even more of a good thing at a better price.”

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